Workshop: Challenges of predicting critical transitions in natural systems
from
Thursday, December 7, 2023 (12:00 PM)
to
Friday, December 8, 2023 (5:00 PM)
Monday, December 4, 2023
Tuesday, December 5, 2023
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
Thursday, December 7, 2023
12:00 PM
Lunch
Lunch
12:00 PM - 1:00 PM
Room: Reed Hall
1:00 PM
Invited talk - Thomas Bury (McGill)
Invited talk - Thomas Bury (McGill)
1:00 PM - 1:45 PM
Room: Reed Hall
1:45 PM
John Slattery (Cambridge/BAS) - Searching for EWS in model simulations of DO events
John Slattery (Cambridge/BAS) - Searching for EWS in model simulations of DO events
1:45 PM - 2:05 PM
Room: Reed Hall
2:05 PM
Ivan Sudakow (Open University) - Classification of Major Concepts of Mass Extinctions Based on Large Deviation Theory
Ivan Sudakow (Open University) - Classification of Major Concepts of Mass Extinctions Based on Large Deviation Theory
2:05 PM - 2:25 PM
Room: Reed Hall
2:25 PM
Mark Williamson (Exeter) - Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state
Mark Williamson (Exeter) - Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state
2:25 PM - 2:45 PM
Room: Reed Hall
2:45 PM
Posters and Tea/Coffee
Posters and Tea/Coffee
2:45 PM - 3:30 PM
Room: Reed Hall
3:30 PM
Invited talk - Susanne Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)
Invited talk - Susanne Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)
3:30 PM - 4:15 PM
Room: Reed Hall
4:15 PM
Raphael Roemer (Exeter) - Characterising Edge States: Measures on chaotic saddles
Raphael Roemer (Exeter) - Characterising Edge States: Measures on chaotic saddles
4:15 PM - 4:35 PM
Room: Reed Hall
4:35 PM
Frank Kwasniok (Exeter) - Data-driven anticipation and prediction of critical transitions using non-autonomous dynamical modelling
Frank Kwasniok (Exeter) - Data-driven anticipation and prediction of critical transitions using non-autonomous dynamical modelling
4:35 PM - 4:55 PM
Room: Reed Hall
4:55 PM
Andreas Morr (TU Munich) - Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time and state-dependent noise
Andreas Morr (TU Munich) - Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time and state-dependent noise
4:55 PM - 5:15 PM
Room: Reed Hall
5:15 PM
Discussion / Drinks reception
Discussion / Drinks reception
5:15 PM - 6:40 PM
Room: Reed Hall
Friday, December 8, 2023
9:15 AM
Invited talk - Martin Rypdal (Tromso)
Invited talk - Martin Rypdal (Tromso)
9:15 AM - 10:00 AM
Room: Reed Hall
10:00 AM
Henrik Jensen (Imperial College London) - Forecasting transitions in high dimensional stochastic systems
Henrik Jensen (Imperial College London) - Forecasting transitions in high dimensional stochastic systems
10:00 AM - 10:20 AM
Room: Reed Hall
10:20 AM
Paolo Bernuzzi (TU Munich) - Scaling laws of Early-Warning Signs for SPDEs and Climate Systems
Paolo Bernuzzi (TU Munich) - Scaling laws of Early-Warning Signs for SPDEs and Climate Systems
10:20 AM - 10:40 AM
Room: Reed Hall
10:40 AM
Coffee
Coffee
10:40 AM - 11:10 AM
Room: Reed Hall
11:10 AM
Gianmarco del Sarto (SNS) - Early warning indicators for a spatially heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model
Gianmarco del Sarto (SNS) - Early warning indicators for a spatially heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model
11:10 AM - 11:30 AM
Room: Reed Hall
11:30 AM
Invited talk - Niklas Boers (TU Munich)
Invited talk - Niklas Boers (TU Munich)
11:30 AM - 12:15 PM
Room: Reed Hall
12:15 PM
Lunch
Lunch
12:15 PM - 1:15 PM
Room: Reed Hall
1:15 PM
Panel discussion - Quantifying uncertainties in predictions of tipping points and EWS analysis
Panel discussion - Quantifying uncertainties in predictions of tipping points and EWS analysis
1:15 PM - 2:15 PM
Room: Reed Hall
2:15 PM
Time for discussions and informal networking
Time for discussions and informal networking
2:15 PM - 4:00 PM
Room: Reed Hall