Workshop: Challenges of predicting critical transitions in natural systems
from
Thursday 7 December 2023 (12:00)
to
Friday 8 December 2023 (17:00)
Monday 4 December 2023
Tuesday 5 December 2023
Wednesday 6 December 2023
Thursday 7 December 2023
12:00
Lunch
Lunch
12:00 - 13:00
Room: Reed Hall
13:00
Invited talk - Thomas Bury (McGill)
Invited talk - Thomas Bury (McGill)
13:00 - 13:45
Room: Reed Hall
13:45
John Slattery (Cambridge/BAS) - Searching for EWS in model simulations of DO events
John Slattery (Cambridge/BAS) - Searching for EWS in model simulations of DO events
13:45 - 14:05
Room: Reed Hall
14:05
Ivan Sudakow (Open University) - Classification of Major Concepts of Mass Extinctions Based on Large Deviation Theory
Ivan Sudakow (Open University) - Classification of Major Concepts of Mass Extinctions Based on Large Deviation Theory
14:05 - 14:25
Room: Reed Hall
14:25
Mark Williamson (Exeter) - Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state
Mark Williamson (Exeter) - Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state
14:25 - 14:45
Room: Reed Hall
14:45
Posters and Tea/Coffee
Posters and Tea/Coffee
14:45 - 15:30
Room: Reed Hall
15:30
Invited talk - Susanne Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)
Invited talk - Susanne Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)
15:30 - 16:15
Room: Reed Hall
16:15
Raphael Roemer (Exeter) - Characterising Edge States: Measures on chaotic saddles
Raphael Roemer (Exeter) - Characterising Edge States: Measures on chaotic saddles
16:15 - 16:35
Room: Reed Hall
16:35
Frank Kwasniok (Exeter) - Data-driven anticipation and prediction of critical transitions using non-autonomous dynamical modelling
Frank Kwasniok (Exeter) - Data-driven anticipation and prediction of critical transitions using non-autonomous dynamical modelling
16:35 - 16:55
Room: Reed Hall
16:55
Andreas Morr (TU Munich) - Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time and state-dependent noise
Andreas Morr (TU Munich) - Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time and state-dependent noise
16:55 - 17:15
Room: Reed Hall
17:15
Discussion / Drinks reception
Discussion / Drinks reception
17:15 - 18:40
Room: Reed Hall
Friday 8 December 2023
09:15
Invited talk - Martin Rypdal (Tromso)
Invited talk - Martin Rypdal (Tromso)
09:15 - 10:00
Room: Reed Hall
10:00
Henrik Jensen (Imperial College London) - Forecasting transitions in high dimensional stochastic systems
Henrik Jensen (Imperial College London) - Forecasting transitions in high dimensional stochastic systems
10:00 - 10:20
Room: Reed Hall
10:20
Paolo Bernuzzi (TU Munich) - Scaling laws of Early-Warning Signs for SPDEs and Climate Systems
Paolo Bernuzzi (TU Munich) - Scaling laws of Early-Warning Signs for SPDEs and Climate Systems
10:20 - 10:40
Room: Reed Hall
10:40
Coffee
Coffee
10:40 - 11:10
Room: Reed Hall
11:10
Gianmarco del Sarto (SNS) - Early warning indicators for a spatially heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model
Gianmarco del Sarto (SNS) - Early warning indicators for a spatially heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model
11:10 - 11:30
Room: Reed Hall
11:30
Invited talk - Niklas Boers (TU Munich)
Invited talk - Niklas Boers (TU Munich)
11:30 - 12:15
Room: Reed Hall
12:15
Lunch
Lunch
12:15 - 13:15
Room: Reed Hall
13:15
Panel discussion - Quantifying uncertainties in predictions of tipping points and EWS analysis
Panel discussion - Quantifying uncertainties in predictions of tipping points and EWS analysis
13:15 - 14:15
Room: Reed Hall
14:15
Time for discussions and informal networking
Time for discussions and informal networking
14:15 - 16:00
Room: Reed Hall