Dartington Workshop on Tipping Points in the Earth System

12 Sept 2022, 09:00 → 16 Sept 2022, 18:00 Europe/London

Dartington Hall, Devon, UK

Peter Ashwin (University of Exeter), Helle Astrid Kjær (Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen), Denis-Didier Rousseau (CNRS, Geosciences Montpellier, University of Montpellier), Niklas Boers, Peter Ditlevsen, Julian Newman (University of Exeter)

We are excited to hold a TiPES Workshop and General Assembly for 2022, where we plan fruitful discussions about the project's progress towards its objectives (https://www.tipes.dk/). We welcome members of the associated researcher training network CriticalEarth (https://www.criticalearth.eu/) to participate.

The TiPES meeting will run from evening of Monday 12th to Friday 16th of September 2022, in person at Dartington Hall, near Totnes, Devon, UK.

In addition, on Monday afternoon there is the opportunity to join sessions of the meeting "Tipping Points-from Climate crisis to positive transformation"  organized by the Earth Commission (NB you must separately sign up for the first day of this meeting here). On Monday evening we will provide bus transport from Exeter to the beautiful surroundings at Dartington Hall for talks and discussion oriented around the TiPES objectives. We look forward to welcome all TiPES partners for a fruitful and interactive meeting; several members of our advisory board will also be present.

Registration: You must sign up for the conference here: https://store.exeter.ac.uk/conferences-and-events/college-of-engineering-mathematics-and-physical-sciences/conferences/dartington-workshop-on-tipping-points-in-the-earth-system-sept-2022

Travel: Note that there is parking on site (for a fee), and there are fast direct trains from London Paddington and connections from Heathrow, Bristol, Exeter and Newquay Airports. Dartington Hall is about 40 minutes walk or 5 minutes taxi ride from Totnes railway station. We recommend booking trains in advance where possible, and note that two single tickets are often cheaper than a return. Note that the main station in Exeter is called Exeter St David's. If you arrive at Heathrow, the fastest (and cheapest) option is to get a train ticket via Hayes & Harlington and Reading rather than London Paddington. The "SW falcon" buses are a good way to get from Bristol Airport to Exeter, or you can take "Bristol airport flyer" to Bristol Temple Meads and the train from there. The Exeter meeting takes place on the main (Streatham) campus.

RAIL STRIKES: Note there will be UK national rail strikes on 15th and 17th September. If you plan to travel on one of these days, you may find it useful to make alternative arrangements, for example to travel via National Express which has direct buses from Totnes to London https://www.nationalexpress.com/en  The rail strikes have been called off! 

Accommodation: We hope to accommodate most delegates at Dartington Hall, though there is also the option to join as a day delegate. However, accommodation is limited and so early sign up is recommended. If you arrive on Sunday 11th Sept you should book accommodation independently in Exeter. There is an option to stay Friday night at Dartington Hall.

NB! Dartington is now full, so please if you have not yet registered arrange for your own accomodation. We have some recommendations for alternative accommodation from Dartington Hall - ask us if you want this.

Conference dinner: We plan a Wednesday afternoon excursion followed by a conference dinner in the evening.

Guests: We have a limited number of spaces for those who want to bring a guest to share your room in the accommodation. This is available as bed and breakfast for a small additional charge that is paid directly to Dartington Hall.

This event has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement 820970  (TiPES) and by the UK EPSRC under grant EP/T018178/1.

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TiPES homepage

TiPES Science goals

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Monday, 12 September

TiPES informal discussion: TiPES informal discussions and registration for Global Tipping Points meeting

Joint meeting and activities with https://global-tipping-points.org/programme/: Joint meeting

19:30 Snacks and chat

20:00 Bus transfer from Exeter campus to Dartington Hall

Tuesday, 13 September

07:30 Breakfast (for overnight delegates)

Talks 1-convener Denis-Didier Rousseau

1 Welcome by Peter Ditlevsen

2 Talk by Witold Bagnievski

Part 1 recent progress on a self-consistent framework of abrupt climate changes in proxy reconstructions of past climates

3 Talk by Keno Riechers

Part 2 recent progress on a self-consistent framework of abrupt climate changes in proxy reconstructions of past climates

4 Talk by Ayako Abe-Ouchi (remote)

10:00 Break

Discussion on Objective 1: Louise Sime - Introduction to Objective 1 Identify tipping elements (TEs) and their interactions in models and data, and our progress [20 min]

5 Louise Sime - Introduction to Objective 1, and our progress

6 Eirik Myrvoll Nilsen

Part 3 recent progress on a self-consistent framework of abrupt climate changes in proxy reconstructions of past climates

7 Irene Malmierca

Recent progress on identifying D-O tipping elements (TEs) and their interactions in models and data, and the identification of critical forcing levels

8 Rachel Diamond

Recent progress on Arctic sea ice as a potential (TEs) and its interactions within CMIP5 and CMIP6 models - with a focus on warm climates

9 Richard Wood

Recent progress on simulating abrupt climate changes from a (self-consistent) hierarchy of models

10 Louise Sime

Summary and discussion of remaining Objective 1 questions

12:30 Lunch

Talks 2-Convener Javier Blasco Navarro

11 Talk by Kerstin Lux

Memory Effects on Early Warning Signs

12 Talk by Virna Meccia

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

13 Talk by Johannes Lohmann

Multistability and tipping points of the ocean circulation

14 Talk by Denis Höning

Stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Connections to Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

Specific Objective 2.1. Develop methods to skillfully predict forthcoming TPs beyond simple statistical EWSs. This work will focus on the interactions between different TEs and complement statistical precursors of forthcoming transitions and cascades thereof by physics-based ones.

15 Niklas Boers

Intro and overview

16 Andreas Morr

Assessing EWS in the presence of continuous-time correlated noise

17 Chris Boulton

Amazon Resilience

18 Lana Blaschke

Amazon spatial correlations

19 Maya Ben-Yami (remote)

AMOC EWS in CMIP6 models

20 Nils Bochow (remote)

EWS in the South American monsoon

21 Andreas Morr

Green Sahara Collapse

16:00 Coffee

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs): continued

Specific Objective 2.1. Develop methods to skillfully predict forthcoming TPs beyond simple statistical EWSs. This work will focus on the interactions between different TEs and complement statistical precursors of forthcoming transitions and cascades thereof by physics-based ones.

22 Discussion

PICO presentations

23 Alison McLaren and Merve Gorguner

Adding Water Tracers and Isotopes to the
UK Earth System Model (UKESM2)

24 Laura Jackson

AMOC thresholds in CMIP6 models: North Atlantic Hosing MIP

25 Rene van Westen

Wind-driven Ocean Circulation – Model Order Reduction

26 Valérian Jacques-Dumas

Machine Learning Estimate
of the committor function

27 Paul ritchie

Evidence of local Amazon dieback in CMIP6 models

28 Sacha Sinet

Predicting Cascading
Phenomena via asymptotics

29 Ignacio del Amo

Double well experiment: noise tipping with α-stable noise.

30 Bert Wuyts

Tropical forest: Data and model

31 Takahito Mitsui

Synchronization and vibrational resonance in glacial interglacial cycles

32 Da Nian

The combined impact of global warming and AMOC collapse on the Amazon Rainforest

33 Jessica Steer

Spontaneous Dansgaard-Oeschger type oscillations in climate models: Tipping Points in the climate system

34 Ruth Chapman

Stochastic data adapted AMOC box models

35 George Datseris

Basin fraction continuation algorithms

18:30 Dinner

Wednesday, 14 September

07:30 Breakfast (for overnight delegates)

Talks 3-Convener Alison McLaren

36 Talk by Florian Rabe

Representing Mathematical Models of Physical Systems

37 Talk by Peter Ditlevsen

Confident prediction of forthcoming tipping point

38 Talk by Victor Couplet

B-tipping, R-tipping, and overshooting phenomena in a toy model of the AMOC

10:00 Break

Discussion on Objective 5 (O5). Bridge the gap between climate science and policy advice

Specific Objective 5.1. Develop a clear formal language (domain-specific language) to communicate concepts and connections between TP researchers and decision-makers. This includes the notions of uncertainty about the consequences of crossing specific TPs, the reliability of EWSs, and the size and shape of safe operating spaces. The objective of the domain-specific language is to stand as a reference and to minimize ambiguity in the communication of research outputs.

Specific Objective 5.2. Understand the impact of uncertainties on TPs for the mathematical problem of finding optimal policy mechanisms, and frame the dialogue with the decision-maker for defining and communicating decision problems, which determine accountable policies.

39 Discussion led by Michel Crucifix

-Sum up our results and progress (20min)
-Brainstorming about efficient communication with policymakers or policyadvisers (30 min)
-Nicola Botta (online) about the difference between acting and planning (20 min)
-WP 7 (20 min)

12:30 Lunch

Excursion

40 Bus to Kent's Cavern

We have arranged for a bus to visit Kent's Cavern with evidence of past abrupt climate changes, bringing us back to Dartington Hall for about 18:00.

19:00 Conference Dinner

Conference dinner at Dartington Hall

Thursday, 15 September

07:30 Breakfast (for overnight delegates)

Talks 4-Convener Victor Couplet

41 Talk by Ulrike Feudel- Rate-induced tipping in predator-prey systems

Nowadays, populations are faced with unprecedented rates of global climate change, habitat fragmentation and destruction causing an accelerating conversion of their living conditions. Critical transitions in ecosystems often called regime shifts lead to sudden shifts in the dominance of species or even to species’ extinction and decline of biodiversity. Many regime shifts are explained as transitions between alternative stable states caused (i) by certain
bifurcations when certain parameters or external forcing cross critical thresholds, (ii) by fluctuations or (iii) by extreme events. We address a fourth mechanism which does not require alternative states but instead, the system performs a large excursion away from its usual behaviour when external conditions change too fast. During this excursion, it can embrace dangerously, unexpected states. We demonstrate that predator-prey systems can either exhibit a population collapse or an unexpected large peak in population density if the rate of environmental change crosses a certain critical rate. In reference to this critical rate of change which has to be surpassed, this transition is called rate-induced tipping (R-tipping). Whether a system will track its usual state or will tip with the consequence of either a possible extinction of a species or a large population peak like, e.g., an algal bloom depends crucially on the time scale relations between the ecological timescale and the time scale of environmental change. However, populations have the ability to respond to environmental change due to rapid evolution. We show how such kind of adaptation can prevent rate induced tipping in predator-prey systems. This mechanism, called evolutionary rescue, introduces a third timescale which needs to be taken into account. Only a large genetic variation within a population would be able to successfully counteract an overcritically fast environmental change.
[Anna Vanselow1, Lukas Halekotte1, Sebastian Wieczorek2 & Ulrike Feudel1, 1) ICBM, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Lower Saxony, Germany 2) Department of Applied Mathematics, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland]

42 Talk by Julian Newman

Finite-time stabilisation by slowly varying forcing

43 Talk by Xu Zhang

Climate background-dependent bifurcation of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

10:00 Break

Discussion on Objective 4 (O4). Define and identify safe operating spaces

Specific Objective 4.1. Estimate the safety of operating spaces in terms that are quantitatively related to well-defined notions of bifurcations and attractors, as well as to global notions of stability for non-autonomous systems subject to time-dependent forcing.

Specific Objective 4.2. Develop quantitative estimates for the boundaries of safe operating spaces and the associated uncertainties in terms of critical levels and rates of change of distinct anthropogenic forcings. Assess the likelihood of abrupt transitions in the vicinity of these boundaries, while taking into account concepts such as noise- and rateinduced tipping.

44 Discussion led by Marisa Montoya

45 Marisa Montoya

Identifying safe operating spaces through analysis and modelling of tipping elements in future climates

46 Pete Ashwin

Safe operating spaces, multistability and impending tipping points

47 Victor Couplet

A route to O4 using commitment ideas

48 Anna von der Heydt

How does climate sensitivity help to constrain safe operating spaces?

49 Discussion

12:30 Lunch

Talks 5-Convener Lana Blaschke

50 Talk by Mary Silber

A framework to investigate how changing rainfall patterns may impact vegetation band patterns in drylands

51 Talk by Robbin Bastiaansen

Linear and nonlinear climate response

52 Talk by Matteo Cini

Simulating AMOC collapse with a Large Deviation Algorithm

Discussion on Objective 3 (O3). Characterise climate response in the presence of Tipping Points

Specific Objective 3.1. Develop a theory of Climate Response (CR) that goes beyond linear and equilibrium concepts, i.e. beyond Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). This theory should deal with responses on distinct temporal and spatial scales, and relate the responses of different observables to external forcing through appropriate response operators.

Specific Objective 3.2. Apply and evaluate this CR theory by deriving thresholds associated with both natural and anthropogenic abrupt and irreversible transitions in both warmer and colder climates, using information from appropriate paleoclimate data and climate models.

53 Valerio Lucarini - introductory talk

54 Discussion led by Anna von der Heydt

16:00 Coffee

Discussion on Objective 3 (O3). Characterise climate response in the presence of Tipping Points: continued discussion including also objective 2 (EWS) input

Specific Objective 3.1. Develop a theory of Climate Response (CR) that goes beyond linear and equilibrium concepts, i.e. beyond Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). This theory should deal with responses on distinct temporal and spatial scales, and relate the responses of different observables to external forcing through appropriate response operators.

Specific Objective 3.2. Apply and evaluate this CR theory by deriving thresholds associated with both natural and anthropogenic abrupt and irreversible transitions in both warmer and colder climates, using information from appropriate paleoclimate data and climate models.

General assembly for PI's and WP leaders. For ECR discussions and snacks

55 Early Career -Open questions and snacks

56 General Assembly (GA)-for PIs and WP leaders

The GA is the ultimate decision-making body of TiPES, responsible for overall decisions concerning the project as a whole such as addressing major strategic issues as/if they arise. The GA will be held annually and has responsibility for steering the overall direction of the project.

Each beneficiary have one vote.

The GA is chaired by the Coordinator. Specifically the GA will:

• Oversee the whole project, approval of priority setting and of variations in project science, partners or management structure

• Consider and approve changes to any technical specifications for annex 1 of the Grant Agreement and changes in work between beneficiaries if the effect extends beyond individual work packages

• Discuss any issues raised by partners and other project stakeholders

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Items for discussion are so far

-Update on progress by management
-Update on the current amendment
-Discussion of 36 months report
-Input from Astrid Hasselbalch (by Helle Kjær)

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-please suggest further items you would like to discuss or debate

19:00 Dinner

Friday, 16 September

07:30 Breakfast (for overnight delegates)

Talks 6

Report from Tim Lenton

57 Talk by Tim Lenton

58 Update from mangement

10:00 Break

Plenary summary from objective discussions-convener Susanna Corti

12:30 Lunch

Open discussions, planning collaborations and timelines

15:30 Break with traybakes

Open discussions, planning collaborations and timelines