Dartington Workshop on Tipping Points in the Earth System

Europe/London
Dartington Hall, Devon, UK

Dartington Hall, Devon, UK

The event will take place at Dartington Hall, near Totnes in Devon, UK (http://www.dartington.org). There is a linked event on Monday the University of Exeter (NB separate sign up-https://global-tipping-points.org/).
Peter Ashwin (University of Exeter), Helle Astrid Kjær (Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen), Denis-Didier Rousseau (CNRS, Geosciences Montpellier, University of Montpellier), Niklas Boers, Peter Ditlevsen, Julian Newman (University of Exeter)
Description

We are excited to hold a TiPES Workshop and General Assembly for 2022, where we plan fruitful discussions about the project's progress towards its objectives (https://www.tipes.dk/). We welcome members of the associated researcher training network CriticalEarth (https://www.criticalearth.eu/) to participate.

The TiPES meeting will run from evening of Monday 12th to Friday 16th of September 2022, in person at Dartington Hall, near Totnes, Devon, UK.

In addition, on Monday afternoon there is the opportunity to join sessions of the meeting "Tipping Points-from Climate crisis to positive transformation"  organized by the Earth Commission (NB you must separately sign up for the first day of this meeting here). On Monday evening we will provide bus transport from Exeter to the beautiful surroundings at Dartington Hall for talks and discussion oriented around the TiPES objectives. We look forward to welcome all TiPES partners for a fruitful and interactive meeting; several members of our advisory board will also be present.

Registration: You must sign up for the conference here: https://store.exeter.ac.uk/conferences-and-events/college-of-engineering-mathematics-and-physical-sciences/conferences/dartington-workshop-on-tipping-points-in-the-earth-system-sept-2022

Travel: Note that there is parking on site (for a fee), and there are fast direct trains from London Paddington and connections from Heathrow, Bristol, Exeter and Newquay Airports. Dartington Hall is about 40 minutes walk or 5 minutes taxi ride from Totnes railway station. We recommend booking trains in advance where possible, and note that two single tickets are often cheaper than a return. Note that the main station in Exeter is called Exeter St David's. If you arrive at Heathrow, the fastest (and cheapest) option is to get a train ticket via Hayes & Harlington and Reading rather than London Paddington. The "SW falcon" buses are a good way to get from Bristol Airport to Exeter, or you can take "Bristol airport flyer" to Bristol Temple Meads and the train from there. The Exeter meeting takes place on the main (Streatham) campus.

RAIL STRIKES: Note there will be UK national rail strikes on 15th and 17th September. If you plan to travel on one of these days, you may find it useful to make alternative arrangements, for example to travel via National Express which has direct buses from Totnes to London https://www.nationalexpress.com/en  The rail strikes have been called off! 

Accommodation: We hope to accommodate most delegates at Dartington Hall, though there is also the option to join as a day delegate. However, accommodation is limited and so early sign up is recommended. If you arrive on Sunday 11th Sept you should book accommodation independently in Exeter. There is an option to stay Friday night at Dartington Hall.

NB! Dartington is now full, so please if you have not yet registered arrange for your own accomodation. We have some recommendations for alternative accommodation from Dartington Hall - ask us if you want this.

Conference dinner: We plan a Wednesday afternoon excursion followed by a conference dinner in the evening.

Guests: We have a limited number of spaces for those who want to bring a guest to share your room in the accommodation. This is available as bed and breakfast for a small additional charge that is paid directly to Dartington Hall.

This event has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement 820970  (TiPES) and by the UK EPSRC under grant EP/T018178/1.

Registration
Participants
Helle Astrid Kjær
    • 9:00 AM 12:00 PM
      TiPES informal discussion: TiPES informal discussions and registration for Global Tipping Points meeting Peter Chalk room 2.2 (University of Exeter)

      Peter Chalk room 2.2

      University of Exeter

      University of Exeter Exeter UK EX4 4QD
    • 12:00 PM 7:30 PM
      Joint meeting and activities with https://global-tipping-points.org/programme/: Joint meeting University of Exeter

      University of Exeter

    • 7:30 PM 8:00 PM
      Snacks and chat 30m Sanctuary (University of Exeter)

      Sanctuary

      University of Exeter

    • 8:00 PM 9:00 PM
      Bus transfer from Exeter campus to Dartington Hall 1h
    • 7:30 AM 8:30 AM
      Breakfast (for overnight delegates) 1h
    • 8:50 AM 10:00 AM
      Talks 1-convener Denis-Didier Rousseau Dartington hall

      Dartington hall

      • 8:50 AM
        Welcome by Peter Ditlevsen 10m
      • 9:00 AM
        Talk by Witold Bagnievski 15m

        Part 1 recent progress on a self-consistent framework of abrupt climate changes in proxy reconstructions of past climates

      • 9:15 AM
        Talk by Keno Riechers 15m

        Part 2 recent progress on a self-consistent framework of abrupt climate changes in proxy reconstructions of past climates

      • 9:30 AM
        Talk by Ayako Abe-Ouchi (remote) 30m
    • 10:00 AM 10:30 AM
      Break 30m
    • 10:30 AM 12:30 PM
      Discussion on Objective 1: Louise Sime - Introduction to Objective 1 Identify tipping elements (TEs) and their interactions in models and data, and our progress [20 min]
      • 10:30 AM
        Louise Sime - Introduction to Objective 1, and our progress 20m
      • 10:50 AM
        Eirik Myrvoll Nilsen 15m

        Part 3 recent progress on a self-consistent framework of abrupt climate changes in proxy reconstructions of past climates

      • 11:05 AM
        Irene Malmierca 15m

        Recent progress on identifying D-O tipping elements (TEs) and their interactions in models and data, and the identification of critical forcing levels

      • 11:20 AM
        Rachel Diamond 15m

        Recent progress on Arctic sea ice as a potential (TEs) and its interactions within CMIP5 and CMIP6 models - with a focus on warm climates

      • 11:35 AM
        Richard Wood 10m

        Recent progress on simulating abrupt climate changes from a (self-consistent) hierarchy of models

      • 11:45 AM
        Louise Sime 30m

        Summary and discussion of remaining Objective 1 questions

    • 12:30 PM 1:30 PM
      Lunch 1h
    • 1:30 PM 2:30 PM
      Talks 2-Convener Javier Blasco Navarro
      • 1:30 PM
        Talk by Kerstin Lux 15m

        Memory Effects on Early Warning Signs

      • 1:45 PM
        Talk by Virna Meccia 15m

        Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

      • 2:00 PM
        Talk by Johannes Lohmann 15m

        Multistability and tipping points of the ocean circulation

      • 2:15 PM
        Talk by Denis Höning 15m

        Stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Connections to Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions

    • 2:30 PM 4:08 PM
      Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

      Specific Objective 2.1. Develop methods to skillfully predict forthcoming TPs beyond simple statistical EWSs. This work will focus on the interactions between different TEs and complement statistical precursors of forthcoming transitions and cascades thereof by physics-based ones.

      • 2:30 PM
        Niklas Boers 5m

        Intro and overview

      • 2:35 PM
        Andreas Morr 20m

        Assessing EWS in the presence of continuous-time correlated noise

      • 2:55 PM
        Chris Boulton 13m

        Amazon Resilience

      • 3:08 PM
        Lana Blaschke 13m

        Amazon spatial correlations

      • 3:21 PM
        Maya Ben-Yami (remote) 13m

        AMOC EWS in CMIP6 models

      • 3:34 PM
        Nils Bochow (remote) 13m

        EWS in the South American monsoon

      • 3:47 PM
        Andreas Morr 13m

        Green Sahara Collapse

    • 4:00 PM 4:20 PM
      Coffee 20m
    • 4:20 PM 5:00 PM
      Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs): continued

      Specific Objective 2.1. Develop methods to skillfully predict forthcoming TPs beyond simple statistical EWSs. This work will focus on the interactions between different TEs and complement statistical precursors of forthcoming transitions and cascades thereof by physics-based ones.

      • 4:20 PM
        Discussion 40m
    • 5:00 PM 6:30 PM
      PICO presentations
      • 5:00 PM
        Alison McLaren and Merve Gorguner 5m

        Adding Water Tracers and Isotopes to the
        UK Earth System Model (UKESM2)

      • 5:05 PM
        Laura Jackson 5m

        AMOC thresholds in CMIP6 models: North Atlantic Hosing MIP

      • 5:10 PM
        Rene van Westen 5m

        Wind-driven Ocean Circulation – Model Order Reduction

      • 5:15 PM
        Valérian Jacques-Dumas 5m

        Machine Learning Estimate
        of the committor function

      • 5:20 PM
        Paul ritchie 5m

        Evidence of local Amazon dieback in CMIP6 models

      • 5:25 PM
        Sacha Sinet 5m

        Predicting Cascading
        Phenomena via asymptotics

      • 5:30 PM
        Ignacio del Amo 5m

        Double well experiment: noise tipping with α-stable noise.

      • 5:35 PM
        Bert Wuyts 5m

        Tropical forest: Data and model

      • 5:40 PM
        Takahito Mitsui 5m

        Synchronization and vibrational resonance in glacial interglacial cycles

      • 5:45 PM
        Da Nian 5m

        The combined impact of global warming and AMOC collapse on the Amazon Rainforest

      • 5:50 PM
        Jessica Steer 5m

        Spontaneous Dansgaard-Oeschger type oscillations in climate models: Tipping Points in the climate system

      • 5:55 PM
        Ruth Chapman 5m

        Stochastic data adapted AMOC box models

      • 6:00 PM
        George Datseris 5m

        Basin fraction continuation algorithms

    • 6:30 PM 7:30 PM
      Dinner 1h
    • 7:30 AM 9:00 AM
      Breakfast (for overnight delegates) 1h 30m
    • 9:00 AM 10:00 AM
      Talks 3-Convener Alison McLaren
      • 9:00 AM
        Talk by Florian Rabe 30m

        Representing Mathematical Models of Physical Systems

      • 9:30 AM
        Talk by Peter Ditlevsen 15m

        Confident prediction of forthcoming tipping point

      • 9:45 AM
        Talk by Victor Couplet 15m

        B-tipping, R-tipping, and overshooting phenomena in a toy model of the AMOC

    • 10:00 AM 10:30 AM
      Break 30m
    • 10:30 AM 12:30 PM
      Discussion on Objective 5 (O5). Bridge the gap between climate science and policy advice

      Specific Objective 5.1. Develop a clear formal language (domain-specific language) to communicate concepts and connections between TP researchers and decision-makers. This includes the notions of uncertainty about the consequences of crossing specific TPs, the reliability of EWSs, and the size and shape of safe operating spaces. The objective of the domain-specific language is to stand as a reference and to minimize ambiguity in the communication of research outputs.

      Specific Objective 5.2. Understand the impact of uncertainties on TPs for the mathematical problem of finding optimal policy mechanisms, and frame the dialogue with the decision-maker for defining and communicating decision problems, which determine accountable policies.

      • 10:30 AM
        Discussion led by Michel Crucifix 2h

        -Sum up our results and progress (20min)
        -Brainstorming about efficient communication with policymakers or policyadvisers (30 min)
        -Nicola Botta (online) about the difference between acting and planning (20 min)
        -WP 7 (20 min)

    • 12:30 PM 1:30 PM
      Lunch 1h
    • 1:30 PM 6:00 PM
      Excursion
      • 1:30 PM
        Bus to Kent's Cavern 4h

        We have arranged for a bus to visit Kent's Cavern with evidence of past abrupt climate changes, bringing us back to Dartington Hall for about 18:00.

    • 7:00 PM 9:00 PM
      Conference Dinner 2h

      Conference dinner at Dartington Hall

    • 7:30 AM 9:00 AM
      Breakfast (for overnight delegates) 1h 30m
    • 9:00 AM 10:00 AM
      Talks 4-Convener Victor Couplet
      • 9:00 AM
        Talk by Ulrike Feudel- Rate-induced tipping in predator-prey systems 30m

        Nowadays, populations are faced with unprecedented rates of global climate change, habitat fragmentation and destruction causing an accelerating conversion of their living conditions. Critical transitions in ecosystems often called regime shifts lead to sudden shifts in the dominance of species or even to species’ extinction and decline of biodiversity. Many regime shifts are explained as transitions between alternative stable states caused (i) by certain
        bifurcations when certain parameters or external forcing cross critical thresholds, (ii) by fluctuations or (iii) by extreme events. We address a fourth mechanism which does not require alternative states but instead, the system performs a large excursion away from its usual behaviour when external conditions change too fast. During this excursion, it can embrace dangerously, unexpected states. We demonstrate that predator-prey systems can either exhibit a population collapse or an unexpected large peak in population density if the rate of environmental change crosses a certain critical rate. In reference to this critical rate of change which has to be surpassed, this transition is called rate-induced tipping (R-tipping). Whether a system will track its usual state or will tip with the consequence of either a possible extinction of a species or a large population peak like, e.g., an algal bloom depends crucially on the time scale relations between the ecological timescale and the time scale of environmental change. However, populations have the ability to respond to environmental change due to rapid evolution. We show how such kind of adaptation can prevent rate induced tipping in predator-prey systems. This mechanism, called evolutionary rescue, introduces a third timescale which needs to be taken into account. Only a large genetic variation within a population would be able to successfully counteract an overcritically fast environmental change.
        [Anna Vanselow1, Lukas Halekotte1, Sebastian Wieczorek2 & Ulrike Feudel1, 1) ICBM, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Lower Saxony, Germany 2) Department of Applied Mathematics, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland]

      • 9:30 AM
        Talk by Julian Newman 15m

        Finite-time stabilisation by slowly varying forcing

      • 9:45 AM
        Talk by Xu Zhang 15m

        Climate background-dependent bifurcation of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

    • 10:00 AM 10:30 AM
      Break 30m
    • 10:30 AM 12:30 PM
      Discussion on Objective 4 (O4). Define and identify safe operating spaces

      Specific Objective 4.1. Estimate the safety of operating spaces in terms that are quantitatively related to well-defined notions of bifurcations and attractors, as well as to global notions of stability for non-autonomous systems subject to time-dependent forcing.

      Specific Objective 4.2. Develop quantitative estimates for the boundaries of safe operating spaces and the associated uncertainties in terms of critical levels and rates of change of distinct anthropogenic forcings. Assess the likelihood of abrupt transitions in the vicinity of these boundaries, while taking into account concepts such as noise- and rateinduced tipping.

      • 10:30 AM
        Discussion led by Marisa Montoya 10m
      • 10:40 AM
        Marisa Montoya 20m

        Identifying safe operating spaces through analysis and modelling of tipping elements in future climates

      • 11:00 AM
        Pete Ashwin 20m

        Safe operating spaces, multistability and impending tipping points

      • 11:20 AM
        Victor Couplet 20m

        A route to O4 using commitment ideas

      • 11:40 AM
        Anna von der Heydt 20m

        How does climate sensitivity help to constrain safe operating spaces?

      • 12:00 PM
        Discussion 30m
    • 12:30 PM 1:30 PM
      Lunch 1h
    • 1:30 PM 2:30 PM
      Talks 5-Convener Lana Blaschke
      • 1:30 PM
        Talk by Mary Silber 30m

        A framework to investigate how changing rainfall patterns may impact vegetation band patterns in drylands

      • 2:00 PM
        Talk by Robbin Bastiaansen 15m

        Linear and nonlinear climate response

      • 2:15 PM
        Talk by Matteo Cini 15m

        Simulating AMOC collapse with a Large Deviation Algorithm

    • 2:30 PM 4:00 PM
      Discussion on Objective 3 (O3). Characterise climate response in the presence of Tipping Points

      Specific Objective 3.1. Develop a theory of Climate Response (CR) that goes beyond linear and equilibrium concepts, i.e. beyond Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). This theory should deal with responses on distinct temporal and spatial scales, and relate the responses of different observables to external forcing through appropriate response operators.

      Specific Objective 3.2. Apply and evaluate this CR theory by deriving thresholds associated with both natural and anthropogenic abrupt and irreversible transitions in both warmer and colder climates, using information from appropriate paleoclimate data and climate models.

      • 2:30 PM
        Valerio Lucarini - introductory talk 30m
      • 3:00 PM
        Discussion led by Anna von der Heydt 1h
    • 4:00 PM 4:20 PM
      Coffee 20m
    • 4:20 PM 5:00 PM
      Discussion on Objective 3 (O3). Characterise climate response in the presence of Tipping Points: continued discussion including also objective 2 (EWS) input

      Specific Objective 3.1. Develop a theory of Climate Response (CR) that goes beyond linear and equilibrium concepts, i.e. beyond Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). This theory should deal with responses on distinct temporal and spatial scales, and relate the responses of different observables to external forcing through appropriate response operators.

      Specific Objective 3.2. Apply and evaluate this CR theory by deriving thresholds associated with both natural and anthropogenic abrupt and irreversible transitions in both warmer and colder climates, using information from appropriate paleoclimate data and climate models.

    • 5:00 PM 7:00 PM
      General assembly for PI's and WP leaders. For ECR discussions and snacks
      • 5:00 PM
        Early Career -Open questions and snacks 1h 30m Dukes Room, Pontin Room and Lane Room booked. This is different to the West Wing lounge (upstairs in the West Wing)

        Dukes Room, Pontin Room and Lane Room booked. This is different to the West Wing lounge (upstairs in the West Wing)

      • 5:00 PM
        General Assembly (GA)-for PIs and WP leaders 1h 30m

        The GA is the ultimate decision-making body of TiPES, responsible for overall decisions concerning the project as a whole such as addressing major strategic issues as/if they arise. The GA will be held annually and has responsibility for steering the overall direction of the project.

        Each beneficiary have one vote.

        The GA is chaired by the Coordinator. Specifically the GA will:

        • Oversee the whole project, approval of priority setting and of variations in project science, partners or management structure

        • Consider and approve changes to any technical specifications for annex 1 of the Grant Agreement and changes in work between beneficiaries if the effect extends beyond individual work packages

        • Discuss any issues raised by partners and other project stakeholders


        Items for discussion are so far

        -Update on progress by management
        -Update on the current amendment
        -Discussion of 36 months report
        -Input from Astrid Hasselbalch (by Helle Kjær)


        -please suggest further items you would like to discuss or debate

    • 7:00 PM 8:30 PM
      Dinner 1h 30m
    • 7:30 AM 9:00 AM
      Breakfast (for overnight delegates) 1h 30m
    • 9:00 AM 10:00 AM
      Talks 6

      Report from Tim Lenton

      • 9:00 AM
        Talk by Tim Lenton 45m
      • 9:45 AM
        Update from mangement 15m
    • 10:00 AM 10:30 AM
      Break 30m
    • 10:30 AM 12:30 PM
      Plenary summary from objective discussions-convener Susanna Corti
    • 12:30 PM 1:30 PM
      Lunch 1h
    • 1:30 PM 3:30 PM
      Open discussions, planning collaborations and timelines Pontin, Lane, Holand rooms, West Wing

      Pontin, Lane, Holand rooms, West Wing

    • 3:30 PM 4:00 PM
      Break with traybakes 30m West Wing Lounge

      West Wing Lounge

    • 4:00 PM 4:30 PM
      Open discussions, planning collaborations and timelines Pontin, Lane, Holand rooms

      Pontin, Lane, Holand rooms