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Dartington Workshop on Tipping Points in the Earth System

12–16 Sept 2022
Dartington Hall, Devon, UK
Europe/London timezone

Helle Astrid Kjær

Session

Discussion on Objective 4 (O4). Define and identify safe operating spaces

15 Sept 2022, 10:30
Dartington Hall, Devon, UK

Dartington Hall, Devon, UK

The event will take place at Dartington Hall, near Totnes in Devon, UK (http://www.dartington.org). There is a linked event on Monday the University of Exeter (NB separate sign up-https://global-tipping-points.org/).

Description

Specific Objective 4.1. Estimate the safety of operating spaces in terms that are quantitatively related to well-defined notions of bifurcations and attractors, as well as to global notions of stability for non-autonomous systems subject to time-dependent forcing.

Specific Objective 4.2. Develop quantitative estimates for the boundaries of safe operating spaces and the associated uncertainties in terms of critical levels and rates of change of distinct anthropogenic forcings. Assess the likelihood of abrupt transitions in the vicinity of these boundaries, while taking into account concepts such as noise- and rateinduced tipping.

Presentation materials

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  1. 40. Discussion led by Marisa Montoya
    15/09/2022, 10:30
  2. 56. Marisa Montoya
    15/09/2022, 10:40

    Identifying safe operating spaces through analysis and modelling of tipping elements in future climates

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  3. 57. Pete Ashwin
    15/09/2022, 11:00

    Safe operating spaces, multistability and impending tipping points

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  4. 58. Victor Couplet
    15/09/2022, 11:20

    A route to O4 using commitment ideas

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  5. 62. Anna von der Heydt
    15/09/2022, 11:40

    How does climate sensitivity help to constrain safe operating spaces?

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  6. 59. Discussion
    15/09/2022, 12:00
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