Workshop: Challenges of predicting critical transitions in natural systems

7 Dec 2023, 12:00 → 8 Dec 2023, 17:00 Europe/London

Reed Hall (University of Exeter Streatham (main) campus)

Paul Ritchie (University of Exeter), Peter Ashwin (University of Exeter)

This workshop aims to survey the current state of the art in methodologies for early warning signals, with a view to extending and improving these and applying them to warn of impending critical transitions (tipping points) in natural systems. It will take place at the University of Exeter campus from midday on 7th to late afternoon on 8th December.

Invited speakers:

• Niklas Boers (Munich)
• Thomas Bury (McGill)
• Susanne Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)
• Martin Rypdal (Tromso)

Those attending the CriticalEarth Training event at Dartington Hall (Sunday-Thursday morning), there will be a bus transfer on Thursday morning from Dartington Hall to the University of Exeter.

You can register for this event until 10th November 2023 at

https://store.exeter.ac.uk/conferences-and-events/faculty-of-environment-science-and-economy/mathematics-and-statistics/challenges-of-predicting-critical-transitions-in-natural-systems

This workshop is supported by the EU Horizon 2020 project CriticalEarth, Grant Agreement 956170  (as Workshop 3: Early warning signals for critical transitions), by the EU Horizon 2020 project TiPES, Grant Agreement 820970, and by the Global Systems Institute of the University of Exeter.

Ideas for restaurants in Exeter:

• City Gate (pub food) - https://www.citygatehotel.com/ 
• Herbies (vegetarian) - https://www.herbiesrestaurant.co.uk/ 
• The Flat - https://www.theflatexeter.co.uk/ 
• Cote Brasserie - https://www.cote.co.uk/restaurant/exeter/ 
• Rendezvous Wine Bar and Restaurant - https://www.winebar10.co.uk/ 
• Harry’s Restaurant - https://harrysrestaurants.co.uk/ 
• Bills Restaurant and Bar - https://bills-website.co.uk/restaurants/exeter/ 
• Hotel du Vin - https://www.hotelduvin.com/locations/exeter/bistro/ 
• Namaste (Indian) - https://namasteexeter.co.uk/ 
• Gandhi (Indian) - https://www.exeterindian.com/
• The Imperial Pub - https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/pubs/all-pubs/england/devon/the-imperial-exeter

 

Thursday, 7 December

12:00 → 13:00 Lunch

13:00 → 13:45 Plenary: Invited talk - Thomas Bury (McGill)

13:45 → 14:05 Contributed talks: John Slattery (Cambridge/BAS) - Searching for EWS in model simulations of DO events

14:05 → 14:25 Contributed talks: Ivan Sudakow (Open University) - Classification of Major Concepts of Mass Extinctions Based on Large Deviation Theory

14:25 → 14:45 Contributed talks: Mark Williamson (Exeter) - Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state

14:45 → 15:30 Posters and Tea/Coffee

15:30 → 16:15 Plenary: Invited talk - Susanne Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)

16:15 → 16:35 Contributed talks: Raphael Roemer (Exeter) - Characterising Edge States: Measures on chaotic saddles

16:35 → 16:55 Contributed talks: Frank Kwasniok (Exeter) - Data-driven anticipation and prediction of critical transitions using non-autonomous dynamical modelling

16:55 → 17:15 Contributed talks: Andreas Morr (TU Munich) - Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time and state-dependent noise

17:15 → 18:40 Discussion / Drinks reception

Friday, 8 December

09:15 → 10:00 Plenary: Invited talk - Martin Rypdal (Tromso)

09:15 Coffee

10:00 → 10:20 Contributed talks: Henrik Jensen (Imperial College London) - Forecasting transitions in high dimensional stochastic systems

10:20 → 10:40 Contributed talks: Paolo Bernuzzi (TU Munich) - Scaling laws of Early-Warning Signs for SPDEs and Climate Systems

10:40 → 11:10 Coffee

11:10 → 11:30 Contributed talks: Gianmarco del Sarto (SNS) - Early warning indicators for a spatially heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model

11:30 → 12:15 Plenary: Invited talk - Niklas Boers (TU Munich)

12:15 → 13:15 Lunch

13:15 → 14:15 Plenary: Panel discussion - Quantifying uncertainties in predictions of tipping points and EWS analysis

14:15 → 16:00 Time for discussions and informal networking