Workshop: Challenges of predicting critical transitions in natural systems

Reed Hall (University of Exeter Streatham (main) campus)

Reed Hall

University of Exeter Streatham (main) campus

Exeter, United Kingdom
Paul Ritchie (University of Exeter), Peter Ashwin (University of Exeter)

This workshop aims to survey the current state of the art in methodologies for early warning signals, with a view to extending and improving these and applying them to warn of impending critical transitions (tipping points) in natural systems. It will take place at the University of Exeter campus from midday on 7th to late afternoon on 8th December.

Invited speakers:

  • Niklas Boers (Munich)
  • Thomas Bury (McGill)
  • Susanne Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)
  • Martin Rypdal (Tromso)

Those attending the CriticalEarth Training event at Dartington Hall (Sunday-Thursday morning), there will be a bus transfer on Thursday morning from Dartington Hall to the University of Exeter.

You can register for this event until 10th November 2023 at

This workshop is supported by the EU Horizon 2020 project CriticalEarth, Grant Agreement 956170  (as Workshop 3: Early warning signals for critical transitions), by the EU Horizon 2020 project TiPES, Grant Agreement 820970, and by the Global Systems Institute of the University of Exeter.

Ideas for restaurants in Exeter:


  • Thursday, December 7
    • 12:00 PM 1:00 PM
      Lunch 1h
    • 1:00 PM 1:45 PM
      Plenary: Invited talk - Thomas Bury (McGill)
    • 1:45 PM 2:05 PM
      Contributed talks: John Slattery (Cambridge/BAS) - Searching for EWS in model simulations of DO events
    • 2:05 PM 2:25 PM
      Contributed talks: Ivan Sudakow (Open University) - Classification of Major Concepts of Mass Extinctions Based on Large Deviation Theory
    • 2:25 PM 2:45 PM
      Contributed talks: Mark Williamson (Exeter) - Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state
    • 2:45 PM 3:30 PM
      Posters and Tea/Coffee 45m
    • 3:30 PM 4:15 PM
      Plenary: Invited talk - Susanne Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)
    • 4:15 PM 4:35 PM
      Contributed talks: Raphael Roemer (Exeter) - Characterising Edge States: Measures on chaotic saddles
    • 4:35 PM 4:55 PM
      Contributed talks: Frank Kwasniok (Exeter) - Data-driven anticipation and prediction of critical transitions using non-autonomous dynamical modelling
    • 4:55 PM 5:15 PM
      Contributed talks: Andreas Morr (TU Munich) - Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time and state-dependent noise
    • 5:15 PM 6:40 PM
      Discussion / Drinks reception 1h 25m
  • Friday, December 8
    • 9:15 AM 10:00 AM
      Plenary: Invited talk - Martin Rypdal (Tromso)
      • 9:15 AM
        Coffee 30m
    • 10:00 AM 10:20 AM
      Contributed talks: Henrik Jensen (Imperial College London) - Forecasting transitions in high dimensional stochastic systems
    • 10:20 AM 10:40 AM
      Contributed talks: Paolo Bernuzzi (TU Munich) - Scaling laws of Early-Warning Signs for SPDEs and Climate Systems
    • 10:40 AM 11:10 AM
      Coffee 30m
    • 11:10 AM 11:30 AM
      Contributed talks: Gianmarco del Sarto (SNS) - Early warning indicators for a spatially heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model
    • 11:30 AM 12:15 PM
      Plenary: Invited talk - Niklas Boers (TU Munich)
    • 12:15 PM 1:15 PM
      Lunch 1h
    • 1:15 PM 2:15 PM
      Plenary: Panel discussion - Quantifying uncertainties in predictions of tipping points and EWS analysis
    • 2:15 PM 4:00 PM
      Time for discussions and informal networking 1h 45m