19–21 Aug 2024
Lundbeck Auditorium
Europe/Copenhagen timezone

Data-driven modelling for limited area forecasting

19 Aug 2024, 16:30
1h 30m
Lundbeck Auditorium

Lundbeck Auditorium

Parallel or poster Poster Session

Speaker

Leif Denby (Danish Meteorological Institute)

Description

Recently proposed Neural-LAM forecasting models (https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.17370, https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.04759) bring state-of-the-art graph-based approaches to Limited Area Modeling (LAM). The models generate and use an area-restricted graph and take forcing inputs from a host model to handle the boundary conditions. Initial promising results have motivated interest in developing the approach further. To this end, a cross-national collaborative community has been formed (https://github.com/mllam). We report ongoing work from this community to 1) survey available and relevant reanalysis datasets for training, 2) transform these source datasets to common zarr-based training-ready datasets, on 3) preliminary results applying the Neural-LAM to new spatial domains, and on 4) research questions around global-modal coupling and ensemble forecast predictions currently planned to be tackled within the community. Within the community we are developing a common tooling and infrastructure to share training datasets, and working on shared verification tooling targeting metrics relevant for kilometre-scale forecasts, both of these developments we will detail. The flexible and modular codebase for training and evaluating LAM models is available in an open source repository that welcomes contributions.

Primary authors

Fredrik Lindsten (Linköping University) Irene Schicker (GeoSphere Austria) Joel Oskarsson (Linköping University) Leif Denby (Danish Meteorological Institute) Michiel Van Ginderachter (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium) Simon Adamov (MeteoSwiss) Thomas Rieutord (Met Eireann) Tomas Landelius (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

Presentation materials