Dartington Workshop on Tipping Points in the Earth System

Contribution List

63. Welcome by Peter Ditlevsen

13/09/2022, 08:50

Talks 1-convener Denis-Didier Rousseau

3. Talk by Witold Bagnievski

13/09/2022, 09:00

Talks 1-convener Denis-Didier Rousseau

Part 1 recent progress on a self-consistent framework of abrupt climate changes in proxy reconstructions of past climates

28. Talk by Keno Riechers

13/09/2022, 09:15

Talks 1-convener Denis-Didier Rousseau

Part 2 recent progress on a self-consistent framework of abrupt climate changes in proxy reconstructions of past climates

2. Talk by Ayako Abe-Ouchi (remote)

13/09/2022, 09:30

Talks 1-convener Denis-Didier Rousseau

17. Louise Sime - Introduction to Objective 1, and our progress

13/09/2022, 10:30

Discussion on Objective 1

20. Eirik Myrvoll Nilsen

13/09/2022, 10:50

Discussion on Objective 1

Part 3 recent progress on a self-consistent framework of abrupt climate changes in proxy reconstructions of past climates

21. Irene Malmierca

13/09/2022, 11:05

Discussion on Objective 1

Recent progress on identifying D-O tipping elements (TEs) and their interactions in models and data, and the identification of critical forcing levels

22. Rachel Diamond

13/09/2022, 11:20

Discussion on Objective 1

Recent progress on Arctic sea ice as a potential (TEs) and its interactions within CMIP5 and CMIP6 models - with a focus on warm climates

23. Richard Wood

13/09/2022, 11:35

Discussion on Objective 1

Recent progress on simulating abrupt climate changes from a (self-consistent) hierarchy of models

24. Louise Sime

13/09/2022, 11:45

Discussion on Objective 1

Summary and discussion of remaining Objective 1 questions

38. Talk by Kerstin Lux

13/09/2022, 13:30

Talks 2-Convener Javier Blasco Navarro

Memory Effects on Early Warning Signs

6. Talk by Virna Meccia

13/09/2022, 13:45

Talks 2-Convener Javier Blasco Navarro

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

5. Talk by Johannes Lohmann

13/09/2022, 14:00

Talks 2-Convener Javier Blasco Navarro

Multistability and tipping points of the ocean circulation

29. Talk by Denis Höning

13/09/2022, 14:15

Talks 2-Convener Javier Blasco Navarro

Stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Connections to Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions

47. Niklas Boers

13/09/2022, 14:30

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

Intro and overview

49. Andreas Morr

13/09/2022, 14:35

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

Assessing EWS in the presence of continuous-time correlated noise

50. Chris Boulton

13/09/2022, 14:55

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

Amazon Resilience

51. Lana Blaschke

13/09/2022, 15:08

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

Amazon spatial correlations

52. Maya Ben-Yami (remote)

13/09/2022, 15:21

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

AMOC EWS in CMIP6 models

54. Nils Bochow (remote)

13/09/2022, 15:34

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

EWS in the South American monsoon

53. Andreas Morr

13/09/2022, 15:47

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

Green Sahara Collapse

55. Discussion

13/09/2022, 16:20

Discussion on Objective 2 (O2). Provide approaches for the identification and validation of Early Warning Signals (EWSs)

73. Alison McLaren and Merve Gorguner

13/09/2022, 17:00

PICO presentations

Adding Water Tracers and Isotopes to the
UK Earth System Model (UKESM2)

69. Laura Jackson

13/09/2022, 17:05

PICO presentations

AMOC thresholds in CMIP6 models: North Atlantic Hosing MIP

70. Rene van Westen

13/09/2022, 17:10

PICO presentations

Wind-driven Ocean Circulation – Model Order Reduction

71. Valérian Jacques-Dumas

13/09/2022, 17:15

PICO presentations

Machine Learning Estimate
of the committor function

72. Paul ritchie

13/09/2022, 17:20

PICO presentations

Evidence of local Amazon dieback in CMIP6 models

68. Sacha Sinet

13/09/2022, 17:25

PICO presentations

Predicting Cascading
Phenomena via asymptotics

75. Ignacio del Amo

13/09/2022, 17:30

PICO presentations

Double well experiment: noise tipping with α-stable noise.

74. Bert Wuyts

13/09/2022, 17:35

PICO presentations

Tropical forest: Data and model

76. Takahito Mitsui

13/09/2022, 17:40

PICO presentations

Synchronization and vibrational resonance in glacial interglacial cycles

77. Da Nian

13/09/2022, 17:45

PICO presentations

The combined impact of global warming and AMOC collapse on the Amazon Rainforest

78. Jessica Steer

13/09/2022, 17:50

PICO presentations

Spontaneous Dansgaard-Oeschger type oscillations in climate models: Tipping Points in the climate system

79. Ruth Chapman

13/09/2022, 17:55

PICO presentations

Stochastic data adapted AMOC box models

80. George Datseris

13/09/2022, 18:00

PICO presentations

Basin fraction continuation algorithms

25. Talk by Florian Rabe

14/09/2022, 09:00

Talks 3-Convener Alison McLaren

Representing Mathematical Models of Physical Systems

26. Talk by Peter Ditlevsen

14/09/2022, 09:30

Talks 3-Convener Alison McLaren

Confident prediction of forthcoming tipping point

27. Talk by Victor Couplet

14/09/2022, 09:45

Talks 3-Convener Alison McLaren

B-tipping, R-tipping, and overshooting phenomena in a toy model of the AMOC

39. Discussion led by Michel Crucifix

14/09/2022, 10:30

Discussion on Objective 5 (O5). Bridge the gap between climate science and policy advice

-Sum up our results and progress (20min)
-Brainstorming about efficient communication with policymakers or policyadvisers (30 min)
-Nicola Botta (online) about the difference between acting and planning (20 min)
-WP 7 (20 min)

37. Bus to Kent's Cavern

14/09/2022, 13:30

Excursion

We have arranged for a bus to visit Kent's Cavern with evidence of past abrupt climate changes, bringing us back to Dartington Hall for about 18:00.

30. Talk by Ulrike Feudel- Rate-induced tipping in predator-prey systems

15/09/2022, 09:00

Talks 4-Convener Victor Couplet

Nowadays, populations are faced with unprecedented rates of global climate change, habitat fragmentation and destruction causing an accelerating conversion of their living conditions. Critical transitions in ecosystems often called regime shifts lead to sudden shifts in the dominance of species or even to species’ extinction and decline of biodiversity. Many regime shifts are explained as...

31. Talk by Julian Newman

15/09/2022, 09:30

Talks 4-Convener Victor Couplet

Finite-time stabilisation by slowly varying forcing

32. Talk by Xu Zhang

15/09/2022, 09:45

Talks 4-Convener Victor Couplet

Climate background-dependent bifurcation of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

40. Discussion led by Marisa Montoya

15/09/2022, 10:30

Discussion on Objective 4 (O4). Define and identify safe operating spaces

56. Marisa Montoya

15/09/2022, 10:40

Discussion on Objective 4 (O4). Define and identify safe operating spaces

Identifying safe operating spaces through analysis and modelling of tipping elements in future climates

57. Pete Ashwin

15/09/2022, 11:00

Discussion on Objective 4 (O4). Define and identify safe operating spaces

Safe operating spaces, multistability and impending tipping points

58. Victor Couplet

15/09/2022, 11:20

Discussion on Objective 4 (O4). Define and identify safe operating spaces

A route to O4 using commitment ideas

62. Anna von der Heydt

15/09/2022, 11:40

Discussion on Objective 4 (O4). Define and identify safe operating spaces

How does climate sensitivity help to constrain safe operating spaces?

59. Discussion

15/09/2022, 12:00

Discussion on Objective 4 (O4). Define and identify safe operating spaces

33. Talk by Mary Silber

15/09/2022, 13:30

Talks 5-Convener Lana Blaschke

A framework to investigate how changing rainfall patterns may impact vegetation band patterns in drylands

34. Talk by Robbin Bastiaansen

15/09/2022, 14:00

Talks 5-Convener Lana Blaschke

Linear and nonlinear climate response

44. Talk by Matteo Cini

15/09/2022, 14:15

Talks 5-Convener Lana Blaschke

Simulating AMOC collapse with a Large Deviation Algorithm

42. Valerio Lucarini - introductory talk

15/09/2022, 14:30

Discussion on Objective 3 (O3). Characterise climate response in the presence of Tipping Points

60. Discussion led by Anna von der Heydt

15/09/2022, 15:00

Discussion on Objective 3 (O3). Characterise climate response in the presence of Tipping Points

66. Early Career -Open questions and snacks

15/09/2022, 17:00

General assembly for PI's and WP leaders. For ECR discussions and snacks

67. General Assembly (GA)-for PIs and WP leaders

15/09/2022, 17:00

General assembly for PI's and WP leaders. For ECR discussions and snacks

The GA is the ultimate decision-making body of TiPES, responsible for overall decisions concerning the project as a whole such as addressing major strategic issues as/if they arise. The GA will be held annually and has responsibility for steering the overall direction of the project.

Each beneficiary have one vote.

The GA is chaired by the Coordinator. Specifically the GA...

36. Talk by Tim Lenton

16/09/2022, 09:00

Talks 6

45. Update from mangement

16/09/2022, 09:45

Talks 6

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